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This past article of the month, Rick Schummer's views (club secretary) on the Y2K problem, are presented. This article appeared in the April 1999 WYSIWYG newsletter. Opinions on the Y2k Problem by Rick Schummer Am I the only person who has seen a media blitz on the Y2K issue since our country's top leader was not found guilty during the Impeachment Trail? I thought I would write a few thoughts down on my perspective of this situation and speak from a personal perspective on why the world will not end on January 1, 2000. My Disclaimer So What is the Big Deal? Lets first discuss exactly what the Y2K problem really is and why we face it. It all started many years ago when hardware and software developers saved space in memory and on disk drives by not including the "19" in the year. They only used the last two digits of the year. The real issue of Y2K is two pronged. First is entering a date into the computer. If the older software only allows 2 digits for the year it will likely default to the 1900s. Therefore, the entering in "00" for the year will default to 1900 instead of 2000. This causes problems for date math calculations. Many issues arise like newborns being a hundred years old the moment they are first entered into a hospital's computer. The second issue is sorting. The "00" will sort before the "01" and the "99". This will cause reports or screens to display information out of order. This problem will cause trouble for people evaluating the information in date order. In the early years of computing it did not matter. Back in the 1970's and 1980's we saw software last a dozen years or more. In many cases, 20 years or more was not unusual. This was not planned, it just happened. Business did not change at the pace we see today. The average life span of computers and software is shorter and shorter as time goes on. Currently, software changes are hitting us in annual installments. Hardware is moving at the same pace. Y2K "Bug", Not! It is my personal opinion that there are a number of people out there hyping the fear of the of the computer world ending when the Year 2000 hits. I have listened to a number of so called "experts" who claim that cars won't start, electrical grids will shut down, banks will close, stores will not sell food without cash, PCs will stop working, etc. I personally think this is like an insurance salesperson saying "you could die tomorrow and leave nothing for your family, buy this policy". If the insurance guy really believed you would die tomorrow, he surely would not sell you a policy that would protect your family. Many people are saying that the banks will shut down. This is bunk; they will still collect the mortgage payment and will still keep your money safe. They are charged with this and there would be riots if they did not protect this. Frankly there is not a car loan or home mortgage cut today that does not expire in the year 2000 and beyond. They claim that credit cards will stop working, I have several that expire in August of 2000 and they work. There is fear that the Edison power-grid will shut down. I think that there are bigger problems in the world and I think this is more fear than reality (but the closest thing to a mass problem that could happen). I have it a good source that indicates that Edison is well ahead of testing and are well on their way to protecting us from a mass blackout. The IRS will not stop collecting taxes, Social Security will continue to struggle in Congress and the planet will continue to rotate. Doctors will care for patients even if they have to write things down and look things up in a book. I am not going to sit here and say that nothing will happen, I'm just skeptical on the fear mongers and the end of the world scenarios. I probably would not fly the night of December 31, 1999 since the radar system is all software driven these days. We may have to wait for some things to catch up, but there is still three-quarter of a year to get the important things fixed.
Don't fear the worse, mass perception could become reality or cause the breakdown of society in my opinion. Be prepared for your own sake. I have little control over this Y2K problem and I'm in the computer business. I can only help a small segment of the population and I do my best to ease people's fear. Frankly, I'll be enjoying the rollover to the Year 2000 with friends and family. If the lights go out, I'll light a few candles and enjoy their company via candlelight. Worse case is that the Rose Bowl will not be watched the next day, I'll survive. There is a pretty good (long) article in a recent past issue of PC Magazine (last fall). Frankly, most computer mags are running stories and it is in the mass media hourly. Just try to discard the fear mongers and understand that some may be true, but much is urban legend or people hyping it to make a profit off of it. Once again, the world has bigger issues facing it than the Y2K. End of Article |
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